Risky business: how concerned do you need to be about emerging markets?
Global Economy Watch - March 2016
This month, our economists suggest that once again the global economy faces a dangerous cocktail of risks including slowing growth in China, a strong dollar, and low commodity prices. But this time, the emerging market economies look the most vulnerable, while advanced economies are still struggling to escape the low economic growth environment almost a decade on from the global financial crisis.
We expect
- Chinese GDP growth to slow further to around 6.5% by 2016 – this is expected as the country manages a tricky rebalancing to a more sustainable growth model.
- Lower for longer oil prices – with the OPEC cartel refusing to cut production, demand will be insufficient to absorb the global supply glut
- Sustained strength in the US dollar – less positive recent data may slow, but is unlikely to alter, the Fed’s monetary tightening cycle, maintaining upward pressure on the dollar
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