Climate risks to US and EU commodity supplies

Climate change poses a serious and growing threat to the world’s ability to produce essential commodities.  

In these reports, we examine how heat stress and drought may disrupt US and EU supplies of nine key commodities: critical minerals cobalt, copper and lithium; food crops maize, rice and wheat; vital metals iron, zinc and bauxite (which is used to make aluminium). 

These minerals and metals are critical to transportation, construction, manufacturing, electronics and the green transition, while the food crops supply 42% of human calories. 

Even in a best-case scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions rapidly decline, climate change will cause heat stress and drought to occur with far greater frequency and severity. 

These extreme weather conditions can cause hardship for the miners and farmers who supply the commodities on which US and EU industries and communities depend. 

Unless commodity producers and consumers take preventive action now, they are likely to find their operations increasingly disrupted. 

Use this chart to find out the proportion of US or EU commodity supplies that could be disrupted by heat stress or drought. Our research provides insight for business leaders and policymakers seeking to build robust supply chains as more extreme weather conditions become the new normal. It also underlines the necessity of business model reinvention to support long-term success in the more challenging climate conditions of the future. 

1. We can’t assume that future emissions reductions will protect us from a changing climate. Even in an optimistic low emissions scenario all commodities in this report will see rising levels of risk from either heat stress or drought or both by 2050, highlighting the importance of adapting to a changing climate while we strive to reduce carbon emissions.  
2. In some cases, risks are rising sharply from low levels, underlining the need for commodity producers and commodity users to prepare to manage increasing risks they may have little experience in managing.  
3. Climate risks to essential commodities create risks for the global transition to net zero. Lithium, cobalt, and copper are essential for renewable energy technologies including the batteries needed for electric vehicles and storage of solar and wind power. All of these commodities face rising risks from climate change.  
4. Virtually all of the US’s critical mineral and vital metal supplies, and most of the EU’s lithium and bauxite supplies, have ‘hidden’ risks. These commodities arrive in the US or EU in processed form, making it trickier to know their places of origin and how exposed these places are to climate impacts.             
5. Business leaders and policymakers may need to employ different strategies to manage risks as critical minerals are often imported while vital metals and food crops are often domestically produced.