Climate risks to nine key commodities

We depend on nine essential commodities: critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and copper; food crops such as wheat, maize, and rice; and vital metals like iron, zinc, and bauxite (which is used to make aluminium).

These minerals and metals are critical to transportation, construction, manufacturing, electronics, and the green transition. The key crops supply 42% of human calories. And production of all of these commodities could be disrupted by climate change unless we take action to adapt to a hotter world. 

Read on to see the risks - and how to manage them.

Large proportions of global supplies of nine of our essential commodities are produced at sites that are increasingly vulnerable to climate change.

Even in an optimistic scenario in which carbon emissions rapidly decrease, many of the mines and farms that provide our essential commodities will face increasingly hot and dry conditions in the coming years - conditions which can potentially disrupt production. 

In farming - the world’s thirstiest industry which consumes 70% of the world's freshwater - drought can reduce crop yields. Water is particularly critical in the cultivation of rice, wheat, and maize. In mining, a lack of water undermines water-intensive operations including ore extraction, mineral processing, and dust control. 

Heat stress can reduce productivity - and even be life-threatening - for workers at mines and farms who often spend many hours working outdoors where they are directly exposed to the impacts of heat and humidity.

Below are the percentages of production capacity for each commodity that may be disrupted by growing heat stress and drought - even if global carbon emissions sharply decline. 

1. Risks are rising for all nine commodities

In some cases, risks are rising sharply from low levels, underlining the need to ensure resource producers are prepared to manage increasing risks that, in some cases, they may have little experience in managing.

2. We can’t assume that future emissions reductions will protect us from a changing climate

Even in an optimistic scenario in which global carbon emissions drop rapidly, heat stress and drought risks will increase significantly, highlighting the importance of adapting to a changing climate while we strive to reduce carbon emissions.

3. Resource producers and consumers should begin preparing for growing disruption risk

Already, 47% of CEOs have taken proactive measures to safeguard their workforces and physical assets from climate change, according to PwC’s 2024 Annual Global CEO Survey. However, more needs to be done to enhance resilience.