Podcast transcript: Episode 27- Data as a service- Leveraging Data and Analytics for Better Outcomes

Ada: So welcome to the Experience Pod where we focus on emerging technologies, trends, and their impact on the Nigerian and African business landscape. My name is Ada Irikefe, Associate Director and Head of Disruption at PwC Nigeria. So data, they say, is the new oil. We've had this catchphrase over and over again. It, however, highlights the emphasis and the importance of data in today's world. According to IDC ( a market intelligence company) the global data sphere is predicted to be about 175 zettabytes by 2025. So, to put that into perspective, if this amount of data is put into a 1 gigabyte USB drive, and lined up end to end, it would make a line of stretches across 16.1 billion football fields. There's clearly a wealth of data available in the world today. So how are organizations in Nigeria and across Africa making the most of it? So among the vast types of data readily available to be mined, finance data is considered to be one of the most complex and difficult datasets to understand, and as such it isn't maximized as well as it should, particularly in a country like Nigeria with low financial literacy levels. Thankfully, Nairametrics has been on a mission to change the outlook of this space by providing real time, simplified updates, impacting the financial, business, and social economic landscape. To add insights to this conversation, I'm joined by the CEO of Nairametrics and Nairalytics, Mr. Ugo Obi-Chukwu. It's wonderful to have you here live and direct at the Experience Center. Welcome. 

Ugo: Thank you very much. Glad to be here.

Host: Great. So let's start with some background for those who may not be familiar with you. I don't think there's anyone that doesn't know of Nairametrics. But what's your story? What inspired the creation of Nairametrics?

Ugo: Interesting. So first of all, my background. I am a chartered accountant and financial analyst as well. I’ve been into strategy, chain management, and financial analysis. So Nairametrics started about seven years ago. But before then around 2007/2008 after the stock market crash my friends and I came together, and we formed an investment club and I was the president of the investment club. I think that was like 2005/2006 or so. And of course, we put a sizable amount of our salaries into stocks and read a lot of Warren Buffet styled articles and how we invest and how he preaches hold for the long term and don't even come back looking at the prices. Just keep investing. And, in a way that was also how some of our parents invested at the time.

Host: True, true.

Ugo: And then in 2007/2008, we had that very high boom. I don't think we have  ever gotten to that level, since then. And then of course the crash happened in 2008 and until today we never have recovered our funds.

Host: That's very awesome. 

Ugo: At that time, it was a very painful experience and I started probing to find out why that happened and I realized, we all got it wrong. I think investor education was really poor. There wasn't a lot of websites that you could go to and read and understand how to invest in Nigeria, so a lot of things that we had out there were mostly around investing in maybe US stock market or UK or whatever.

Host: Different environment.

Ugo: Exactly, environment. Different considerations and different rules and laws and applications. And so, it was completely different and different companies as well, so at that time I started reading up a lot and doing my research. There wasn't a lot about investing in Nigeria. So most of what you found then were in magazines and that was just the start of Blogspot, I don't know if you remember Blogspot, and all that. So, I decided, okay, you know what? I was just going to write a lot of things that I was reading. I opened a journal and started writing, I think it was called ugodre.blogspot.com or something like that.

Host: Does it still exist?

Ugo:  No, it doesn't. So, it was started there. I was putting a lot of my stuff and, and then one day I think I was in Dubai on holiday with my family, maybe it was like 2012 or something, never told the story before. And I got a call from a friend, and  he just kept calling me and when you're abroad you don't pick up calls like that. There was no WhatsApp then, so I picked up the call and then he's like I’m trending on Nairaland and I was like, what's going on there? It's like,  there's something. So I guess someone picked up one of my stuff and put it up [00:06:00] there, and I said, okay, well people really do read these things. And then from there I changed the name to Ugometrics .

Host: Did you want to hold onto the name?

Ugo: Not really. So I read a book at that time, I think it was called Freakonomics and I don’t know if you know of Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt? So those great guys had this podcast that I really listened to a lot then.And I liked their style.

Host: Their style

Ugo: Their style. It was mostly behavioural economics and all that stuff. So I thought finance should be that way as well, very behavioural and not very one key-ish cause I thought that at the end of the day, everybody does finance one way or the other. So, but you don't have to make it look very complicated. And so I said Ugonomics sounded very cliche, so I was like, maybe Ugometrics and because I always wanted to break down things, and it started I think I blogged as Ugometrics for a while until about [00:07:00] 2013 or so for about three years before. I then decided, you know, what? Maybe let's just cool. Let's turn this into a company. I think there was only about one other company, one other website that I really liked and I still like till now. That was doing, something close to what I thought Nigeria needed. I think it was Proshare at the time. A lot of us used to read Proshare stuff, but the difference is that, Proshare, you had to really understand finance to read it. And I thought, okay, so let's just go a little, a bit more mainstream. And so I changed it. I also didn't want it to be about me because Ugodre sounded like it was a blog. I also wanted it to capture finance a lot more and money and so when you hear Naira you know, it's got to do it with money and all that. So that's basically the story of how Nairametrics started. Just like that. [00:08:00] and since then it's been a lot of work. It's grown. We have over 30 employees. We have over a dozen in-house analysts. We don't call our writers journalists because we kind of think for you to be an analyst, then it's a space that you fully understand.

Host: Basically you have to be very free thinking and open minded.

Ugo: Exactly and you got to be able to explain the news a lot more, we have probably a dozen more freelance writers from all over the world. It's just incredible. People who just have a passion for writing, but probably not what's not something that can fend for you. Sure. But you can still share your passion by sending those instructive articles and they'll put up theirs. So I think that that's basically how we've been managing. It's been tough juggling this with 9-to-5. The early years were very difficult for me as a [00:09:00] person. Spent little time with family. So when I close from work and I come home and then start- 

Host: Your second job or as we say, your side hustle 

Ugo: Exactly! Side hustle kicks in and then you keep grinding on and on. The funny thing was that in those early years it wasn't very much rewarding financially. 

Host: But it was impactful.

Ugo: Yes it was.

Host: It was impactful. And one of the questions I was going to ask, who are your customers? Because people like me don't understand finance as well as you people who have a degree in finance or background in finance. And what I found with Nairametrics is that it's so simplified that I don't need to understand finance. I can take nuggets from there and run with it. It's simple. It's clean. So I wonder who are your [00:10:00] customers? I mean, do you have a particular demography?

Ugo: So, I mean, brilliant question. And when we started, one of the things that we said we're always going to do, we're never going to be one key-ish. You don't have to read and start to have a headache. So even the language and how we sort of style it and how we write it just had to be simple because at the end of the day everybody spends money and everybody makes money. Right. So how do you explain to-

Host: Everybody wants money.

Ugo: Yeah and people want to understand stuff and so the demographic is really,

Host: cuts across

Ugo:  Yes, it cuts across completely. There's no boundaries. We actually think that if a teenager [00:11:00] doesn't understand what we write about then we actually haven't done well. And at the heart of what we do is financial literacy as well. So we have loads of financial literacy content, thousands of articles. If you are writing for people who are just getting into finance, then your language just has to be very plain and simple. So we invest a lot in making sure that our analysts can write like that. And so that's it. So the demographic is just anyone. I remember when I used to write for Punch newspaper, part of me was trying to spread Nairametrics, around then most of the emails we used to get were from pensioners . It's incredible.

Host: Yeah. Interesting.

Ugo: Yeah, because they had more time to read and they wanted a lot more information. They were, I think, a lot worried about the economy and things and their investments.  So they're always writing “I liked your article”, “you [00:12:00] broke this down for me.” Could you explain this further?”

Host: So, do you still maintain that database wondering now that you've moved into the digital space, do you still have these pensioners following you? My father is a pensioner. He’s 82

Ugo: Does he still read newspapers? 

Host: It was on his phone. 

Ugo: So my mom's 76 as well. And it's all on your phone So they're a lot more digital now. I think we've always been digital first from time. Early on, we said, we're never ever going to go print, never ever, we're always going to be digital. And so it's now how you can give them the same information digitally. And people consume information these days, different ways either listening or reading or viewing or streaming or something like that. 

Ada: Thank [00:13:00] God for technology, should we say. So, on the back of what you've just said, anybody can go onto Nairametrics right now and just consume info, consume data. And the last I checked, you're not a charity, right? 

Ugo: Yes.  

Host: So I wonder, how do you make money? How do you monetize this information? Do you? Or it's just all charity

Ugo: Okay. So I mean, Nairametrics is completely bootstrap from time. I could remember early on in our first first couple of years there's this saying if a business grows past five years, then at least it's past a very critical stage in life, in its business life and those temptations to seek external funding, like, you the way [00:14:00] you just go and raise $250,000 or $2 million valuation and everybody tells you “Congrats! Congrats!” like you've actually made that money . I thought that wasn't the way I wanted to go. I wanted to build a business that was self-sufficient. Doesn't mean that I wouldn't consider outside funding at some point, but how we make money speaking directly to that question. Number of ways: advertising mostly, partnerships as well. We have a lot of media partnerships with companies. There are a lot of companies out there who believe knowledge sharing is corporate social responsibility as well. So you can imagine, PwC decides you want to be pushing out regular knowledge-based content on select platforms. So there are [00:15:00] companies like that who use Nairametrics as one of those platforms. So those, we have, revenue partnerships with them. These days people hardly advertise, at least not as much as they do. There's a new form of advertising on digital platforms now that is called sponsored articles so that's also a seminal part of our revenue stream. And there are also events coverage. So that helps as well. With our revenue and then the areas that we haven't even started exploring yet, we haven't started exploring subscription. Most media platforms do that now, but we don't think the Nigerian market is ready yet for that. Yeah. but that's another stream. They're also, other offerings that, we're toying with we don't want to disclose that

Ada: Top secret.

Ugo: Yeah, but for now I [00:16:00] think we're very self-sufficient. I would say we're profitable, from at least the last three years. So yeah, it does make money.

Host: Dispel the myth that you're not a charity .

Ugo: We do have an NGO though.

Host: Oh, you do?

Ugo: Yeah. So we have a foundation. The Nairametrics foundation hasn't really started fully . But something that we're looking into going next year and that's going to be focused more on financial inclusion and literacy and all that.

Host: So Fantastic.

Ugo: That would likely come up next year.

Host: Oh, great. Pleased to hear that. I know that Nairametrics also has maybe not as popular sister company that is not as popular as Nairametrics, Nairalytics

Ugo: So you know about that?

Host: I like the flow . So what brought about Nairalytics? Are these two separate entities and is one [00:17:00] subscription based? I know you've talked about not going down the subscription model, but what was the thinking around Nairalytics?

Ugo: Okay, so at the heart of Nairametrics is data. So we do a lot of data-driven journalism. So there's hardly any Nairametrics article that you read, that you don't see some kind of data behind it trying to explain those numbers. And that's because we think data-based content is a lot more useful to people than opinion-based content. So if you're going to write an article about the exchange rate and if you're going to put some context to it, you've got be able to tell your reader  you're trying to say what would happen to the exchange rate next year, you're not also going to[00:18:00] say “Oh, we think it's going to depreciate.”

Host: It's got to be backed

Ugo: Are you saying that based on what happened in the past? If it did happen in the past, then show us, you would have to reveal that. So that's what we do. And so that meant we had a lot of data and digging through Nigerian data can be very tough. People say we don't have data. I think we have data, but the problem with Nigerian data is structure. How that data is sort of structured, the consistency of the data and then to some extent as well the integrity of the data. And so the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, does a good job of highlighting what's there. And even the CBN, they do have a lot of data, Nigerian data. A whole lot of people don't even know but we noticed that to get that data [00:19:00] was very rigorous, right? And you also need to understand how to download the data and how to relate the data as well as storing the data. So it was just a lot of hassle. And then my partner and I said, Look, why can't you just build a platform that is just very easy for people to check data? Like if you wanted to check Nigeria's inflation rate for the last 10 years why do you have to go to NBS website, download in Excel, and then start to plot your own graphs and all of that? Or why do you have to go to maybe some foreign website who might not really have all that data and nobody's going to build this for us in Nigeria we got to do it yourself. And then we started building Nairalytics and it wasn't just meant to be  a website where you could just see inflation data. Part of what we're also trying to do is at some point [00:20:00] you should be able to layer inflation data and GDP and see there's a correlation. So that's what we're trying to build. Never been done in Nigeria at all. We're still developing, so we haven't actually launched fully, but the site is live and we have a number of test data that we put there already that people can check. And it's like our inflation data, for example. There's nowhere in Nigeria where you see that level of intricacies. Inflation data alone, I think we probably have 30 data points. Month to month inflation. Year on year inflation, food price inflation, consumer price inflation for transport inflation, different types, state inflation. Different things just in one window. So that's Nairalytics so it's owned by Nairametrics for now. So it's a sister website to Nairametrics and they [00:21:00] do have relationships in terms of content as well. So they leverage on each other for content. But it's meant to be completely separate

Host: And possible different audience as well. I'm thinking of organizations who obviously want to manage their projections and strategies going forward. They would rely on this sort of information. 

Ugo: Very much so and that's what we also thought as well. People should be able to easily export the data into PDF or even into PowerPoint. We have those sort of tools in there. So imagine if you're doing a presentation about inflation and you need to just put it there and paste it to your PowerPoint, use, that's what we're trying to do. It should actually be, the way we think about it, anyone should actually use it. You could be in a [00:22:00] beer parlour and  you're arguing about GDP and stuff and you're wondering “what is GDP?”. Just go to Google and search, and then it just pops up. It's sort of that level of information and usage

Host: Well done on that. You've talked about your various data points and I'm glad to hear the CBN. In our current environment, our beloved environment, and you kind of touched on it. How do you ensure that whatever data you're pulling apart from those magic points how do you ensure that the data is trustworthy, it's reliable, it's credible. Because there's so much out there, truly, you know

Ugo: It is tough. So let me give you an example of how [00:23:00] difficult Nigerian data can be, right? Tax, So if you go to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics they have breakdown of value added tax by sector. And that data is important because you can do a reverse calculation because VAT essentially is 7.5% of sales. You can do a reverse calculation that can give you an idea of the size of an industry's revenue, for example assuming that it captures everyone who's being taxed there. So if you look at that breakdown and you can look at the first three years and it tells you, there's a sector called Banking and Insurance and this year 2019 it [00:24:00] is 1 billion, in 2020 it is 2 billion, in 2023 it is 4 billion. Right? Then 2022, you wouldn't see Banking and Insurance again, it's now called the Finance sector. So it becomes a problem having a series. And then when you come to 2022, they're giving you historical as well. You find out what they captured in 2019 wasn't the same thing that they captured a year ago when they had the same data. So we have those sort of problems. So what we often do is we write them to clarify. A few times they do correct those things. And then, we also, because some of the data is secondary data and it's basically not our data. We do have caveats as well that we try to put in there just to show the source of the data as well. You could also have [00:25:00] links to the actual source itself. Now, but for our own data, because we also maintain our own data, for example it's not yet on Nairalytics we have data of 30 of the most capitalized stocks on the Nigerian Stock exchange, their financial statements since 2016. Broken down into revenues, cost with ratios. You could find some of that data as well in maybe Financial Times or maybe Bloomberg, but not as detailed as what we have. So for that sort of data, we have processes and guidelines that spell out how the data is pulled and how it's entered and how it is reviewed. So for example, you can have maybe Access bank financial statements of 2022 and then Access Bank can go and restate their 2021 financials, which [00:26:00] is perfectly fine. Right? So companies do restate sometimes. So you have to still go back to what you had before and update it. So we have those sort of processes in place that we use. I think there are sometimes here, but I mean sort of self-correct.

Ada: Nothing major.

Ugo: Nothing major, really nothing major because the intention is not to misinform Data, if people rely on data to make decisions, then it's got to be 99% accurate.

Host: As can be. Thank you so much. So I know you have kind of touched on your differentiator, but I want you to spell it out a little bit more. What is Nairametrics’ differentiator? And the reason why I'm asking this is: investors love Nigeria.

Ugo: Yeah.

Host: Well, especially foreign investors.

Ugo: I would think so.

Host: They love Nigeria. I wish we love ourselves as, [00:27:00] as much as they do

Ugo: . As much as, you're correct. .

Host: And just somehow the investors are able to identify the rough diamonds. Right. Or the diamonds in the rough. And recently my favourite tennis star invested in a company that offers similar service.

Ugo: Oh, yes

Host: as Nairametrics. I'm trying to be coded. Is Nairametrics open to similar Investors or is it a no thank you?

Ugo: So like I mentioned, at some point we're open to investments, but we would not take outside money if [00:28:00] we don't think we need it. There's got to be value to be created from that money. Value destruction is something that we really hate. There are a number of projects that we're working on that could open the doors to external investments because the company, Nairametrics Financial Advocates is not just about the Nairametrics website alone there are other spin offs that are coming up, there's Nairalytics now. There's a crowdfunding application that we're working on now  it's called… should I mention it now?

Host: You mention it. I'm going to ask you all questions.

Ugo: Okay. So that's coming up as well. Number of things that we're working on that could open the doors for that now. [00:29:00] What differentiates us from those guys? Because I think I know who you're talking about since you didn't mention names I won't mention either. I think that they're a very, very good platform. I do read it as well. But they're mostly subscription-based. I think, this is just my opinion, they are styled more like The Economist because they're not everyday news or analysis. Ours is everyday news and analysis. So our demographic is a lot wider. So basically we cover crypto, we cover tech, we cover the economy, we cover financial literacy, just think about anything entirely. So that's different. So we're probably looking to be like, if you ask me the website that we want to be like at some point, maybe Financial Times. That's what I think we want to be like, [00:30:00] even though we're not anywhere close at the moment. So completely different. And the business model is different as well. So our business model at this point doesn't require external funding and that's why we didn't go that route. Because we didn't think that a subscription-based model was what we needed at this point of our growth. And I think that we've justified that with our numbers and how sustainable we are. And how we're also growing. But if you are going with the subscription model, it takes an incredible amount of time. And energy to build it out and I would think that you would require funding so that you can, expand and sustain in early years of maybe, losses and, and all of that and invest a lot in that technology. [00:31:00] So that's why we didn't go that route. But it's also good to go that route as well because different sort of offering for financial content is important for any economy. Like I said you have The Economist, you have The Wall Street Journal, you have Financial Times and you even have Business insider, and everybody's coexisting. Of course there's CNBC and all of that. 

Host: It's a big space.

Ugo: Yeah. It's a big space and I think the more exposure we give to Nigeria from a media standpoint, I think the better for the economy. We have a lot of people outside Nigeria that have reached out to us just to get context around, stories or happenings in the country. We've had a number of people who acquire big companies here, that you're seeing in the news, they reach out to us behind the scenes

Host: To just vet discreetly, validate what they have.

Ugo: Exactly. “We saw what you wrote [00:32:00] about these guys, what exactly is in there and things like that.” And I think that's good for the country. And then of course they also see opportunities. One of our analysts was in I think it was in Paris a couple of days ago with the founder of Binance and he told him that he likes his job. He likes what he does. They do read these things outside of this country. So the more of such platforms we have, I think the better for the economy.

Host: Nice. Well done. And we don't all have to follow the same path. That's why we're different. So speaking to your business model, would you say If I was to name it, would you say you've latched onto the Data-as-a-Service business model? And by that do you offer, I think [00:33:00] you touched on it a little bit, do you offer bespoke data services to clients

Ugo: Yes.

Host: Individuals and organizations?

Ugo: Yes. So we do that, currently. I mean, it's a smaller part of our revenue stream. And the reason why it's a smaller part is I think that we haven't been, and I guess the market as well, haven't been able to, create the right business model or the monetization model for such a service. Somebody comes to us and says, look I'm trying to do  research. And I need data on "xyz" and it's data that's not readily available. So you have to go find that data and you cost it and then you invoice it and it's difficult for them [00:34:00] to pay because they really can’t quantify the value against the cost. So that's why that is a little slow. And so it's difficult keeping resource for that. So what we often do is we partner with some other organizations who do something similar and who do that every day and then provide that kind of data so we do that at some level as well. But I think the model that would work and we are seriously studying Statista, YCharts and a lot of these other companies abroad who offer Data-as-a-Service. Just to get an idea of how to do it. So I think it's somewhere between crowdfunding data and also doing your own research, not bespoke research. I think the [00:35:00] more information you have without actually being commissioned to get that information, I think the better you are at giving people what they really need. I think what would work is a model where people can maybe subscribe to a platform and then that platform gives them access to a lot of data which they can mine and all that. You now want something extra along the lines of your existing data. And then, now it's something that you can easily price and everybody understands that. So that's like where I think this is going to go. It's still very nascent but I think Nigeria needs it. You've got YChart abroad, you've got Statista, so many of them out there, and that's what they do. We did partner with Statista at some point because they didn't have a lot of Nigerian data and content. Yeah. And so we're giving them [00:36:00] some of that content.

Host: Do you still partner with Statista?

Ugo: Yeah. So they do still use some of our data on their site

Host: Because it's important for those of us in here to really understand the Nigerian context. And the reason I ask that is because we also use Statista and I find that a lot of things are when I say they are farfetched. We want localized information to help us make those informed decisions. So we talked about data and we talked about how big, and how plenty, how do you manage, what sort of infrastructure do you use at Nairametrics and Nairalytics now? How do you also protect your platform from some cyber threats because I'm sure you get hit like left, right and center. And then, because we've also talked about real [00:37:00] time info or real time data, how in this beautiful environment of 24/7 information, what is powering it?

Ugo: Interestingly this time last year, I think we were in the middle of a massive cyber attack on Nairametrics. So what Covid did for us was a lot of growth. I think the Covid year was probably a year of rapid growth for us because a lot of people were very financially conscious. People had time to gobble up information and so we had a lot of spikes in our readership. And I think that kind of attracted you know, a lot of…

Ugo: People that you [00:38:00] don't want to attract at all. And then we were attacked severally last year.

Host: And were you able to arrest the situation?

Ugo: We were able to address it, but it caused a lot of damage, so each attack we had basically impacted negatively on our traffic and it was difficult to get back to the level that you were in because there's just a lot of information out there. And so when people come in and your site is down they are not going to come back again. And so we had a lot of challenges and it was very interesting to learn at that time because that's when I really started understanding the power of online platforms. So having an online platform wasn't just about having "www.whatever dotcom" and there was a lot to it behind the scenes. And so retaining talent was also a problem and it was expensive to have people manage that side of things for [00:39:00] you. I just wanted to be creating content. I didn't want to bother myself about that other part but it was important. So how do you store your data? How do you keep the site on? How do you also get analytics around your visits on your site? How do you ensure that you have proper firewalls?  And then how do you guard against one of the most common one and very difficult one to fight: DDoS. So DDoS attacks, basically, some guys out there would just flood your website with a lot of traffic so think about everybody trying to get on the highway at the same time, it's just going to jam. And so they just jam your site and your site crashes. And so we had a lot of all those attacks and sometime late last year I think in December we decided we're going to have to ramp up and outsource. We currently use the highest tier of our content management system. We use, I think it's WordPress, but it's called WordPress [00:40:00] VIP. That's a very high tier. It's pretty expensive but what that does for you is somebody else manages the entire security and database and functionality of your site so they can allow-

Host: You can focus on your core.

Ugo: Exactly. Because we found out that's what the likes of CNN and all of all these guys do. And you don't want to build a team that's going to be doing that for you because that's just quite expensive. Yeah. So that's what we've done and that's how we've been managing and that's basically what we're replicating across our entire platforms, including the new ones that are coming up as well. Because if you don't have solid cybersecurity prevention tools you are always going to get attacks. It's like having an office space and office location. And you have no security[00:41:00]

Host: So cool. So would you say, you know, most organizations worth their salt are all going through this whole digital transformation journey, I think you guys have already been in the journey itself. Has there been anything that you've done differently after Covid? Covid was a rude shock for everyone but then Covid was also a blessing in disguise because it meant you guys wake up and smell the coffee. Technology is abound. Disruption is abound. How do you keep your business resilient? Do you want to talk to us if you were nice and strong during Covid.

Ugo: Covid was like I said still remains one of our best years and I think we [00:42:00] were inadvertently prepared because sometime in 2019 we started using a lot of virtual tools and we were doing a lot of hybrid work. In 2019. And we started with tools like slack. Yeah and then when I moved to Office, because Office was cheaper . And we had different things in a bundle. and then we moved to Teams. And so we always use Teams. So today we are hardly in the office, everybody basically works from home. We only come to the office I think twice in a week. That's when they come to the office, just to bond.

Host: So you were ready?

Ugo: We've always been ready. And so all we just did was just ramp up. Yeah. Double down on those tools. So we use a lot of those things. So whether it’s [00:43:00] assigning tasks, fixing meetings, sending in articles on time. Every single thing is purely digital and I think that's basically where work is headed one way or the other. It's the future of work. And I think part of our plans next year is to invest heavily in things like that. We're trying to see how we can use, you know, things like AI to make our workflow a lot better and even automate how content is written, right? I mean, for example every second week in the month you always have inflation numbers pushed out so why does somebody have to sit down and write that? Can't you have artificial intelligence automate those sort of things for us? So that [00:44:00] our analysts can focus more on explaining the news. So those are the things that we're probably going to be toying with next year. We're also thinking of how do we also start to put content in like the Metaverse? If you wear your VR in the Metaverse, you also want to read newspapers, but you want to read news, know what's happening, so why we should be able to give you content.

Host: Absolutely.

Ugo: Along those lines as well. And as you maybe playing your game or you're doing whatever it is you're doing, your Metaverse, something just flashes and says, Oh, inflation rates is this, or GDP is that online? You read and you click and you quickly just pop and read it and then go back to what you're doing. So those sort of things

Host: Gamifying inflation rate right? But then, truth be told is that's how it sticks. That's how it improves, where you inject real stuff with fun stuff. But yeah, I like it. Quite cool. We're looking forward to all you guys today. People like us on my way to work can quickly go into Nairametrics and just quickly scan what's happening before we’re engrossed in the day to day.  So let's step it down a bit. Thank you. And let me ask some hopefully fun questions. These are our three compulsory questions that we ask all our guests. The first one, predictions. What was the last prediction you got wrong?

Ugo: Okay. So the last prediction I got wrong. So last year I had ten predictions for the year. I think it was seven or ten, but the one that I really got wrong that surprised me last year was, I thought the cryptocurrency bubble was going to burst last year.

Host: Oh really?[00:46:00]

Ugo: Yes. I thought it was going to burst last year. I wasn't expecting it this year at all. It just went to the moon, like they say, and I was like “how did I get it wrong?”  I don’t think I was expecting a lot of the stimulus that happened last year to still channel its way to cryptos. I was surprised. So this year when the bubble did burst it was also surprising. I also did not expect the level of interest rate hike that we're seeing. I didn't think that, I did expect inflation to come up, but I didn't think it was going to be so, I mean, to answer your question directly, I think it was not predicting the [00:47:00] cryptocurrency bubble accurately. I did think it was going to happen sooner. Yeah, I think I aside that it's been pretty fine. Even the inflation of naira, I think I was accurate on that as well.

Host: 1000 Naira to a Dollar

Ugo: We are not there, But I think if you ask me to predict that, I think that's likely going to happen in December or early next year if conditions remain the same and I can always back that up with data.

Host: At this point, I say in God, we trust. So my second question would be what is one view you seem to find very few people agree with?

Ugo: One view that I seem to find. Let's see. What could that be? [00:48:00] So one area that I tend to disagree with a lot of my contemporaries. When I say contemporaries I mean people who I often discuss the Nigerian economy with. I think that a full-fledged floating of the Naira might not be a solution to our exchange rate crisis. I think a lot of people believe that you got to float the Naira for the currency to be stable. I'm sorry, I'm going this direction. But that's what I could think about now. So we do have heated arguments around that. And I think, my opinion is that there's [00:49:00] got to be a middle ground where the market, to a large extent, determines the rates. But it can be allowed to float. And the interesting thing is that Ghana just proved me right. Yeah. Because Ghana had a full float a few years ago, it was very widely celebrated. And see Ghana is doing it and Nigeria is not doing that and it's one of the worst currencies in the world today just like Nigeria is. And the reason is floating a currency is just a mechanism. It's not a solution. It's just a policy, it’s just a pricing mechanism. Getting a stable rate, which is actually what everybody wants, requires a number of things. You've got to be able to have good exports. Yeah. [00:50:00] And when I use that word, good exports because not just oil related exports. Different things. 

Host: Brain exports?

Ugo: Brain exports particularly that can attract dollars and all of that. So you’ve got to have that. You can have less imports as well. Especially for things that you should be able to do. And then, you've got to also have a very buoyant, productive sector in the economy. And I think that should really be the aim rather than thinking that it's just floating. That's going to be the aim. If you don't have any of those things, then you'd always be very vulnerable as an economy. And the reason why most Eastern European countries are less vulnerable to dollar crisis is because most of these countries are consumption based economies. and so you can't do [00:51:00] enough to import FX. So that's been one very area where I tend to disagree a lot with a lot of my contemporaries. At least that is what I can remember. .

Host: Should I ask a question around the change of the Naira, is this the right time… in your opinion?

Ugo: I think the timing is not the problem. I think the problem with the change of the Naira is the drama around it and the reason behind it. And that's always been a lot of the issues I've had with this current CBN. I mean, to be fair, unlike other CBNs this is one CBN has actually experimented a lot. They've tried a lot of things. [00:52:00] Maybe they call it heterodox policies, but mostly homegrown things just to solve problems. But it's always been a method to madness,  for example you want to change a currency, that's fine. Why does it have to be January 31st? Why do you have to say that you are targeting corruption, election and all that? It's just a lot of scaremongering and people then start to react and that causes the ripple effect. That you now start to create for everyone.  Even for themselves, because at the end of the day, the job of a CBN is price stability. And then you can't just, prices that all the policies that you are putting in place to keep prices stable, just, out of the window just because of how you're able to present. So the timing is not the problem. The policy is not the problem, it's [00:53:00] the reason behind it is; all you have to come out and say is, we got to change the currency sometime in December, probably should have announced this three months ago. Instead of all these clandestine moves and see people have a year to change it because give people enough time to do that, and not say it’s an effort at trying to attack corruption. So let me give you another context. You have about 2.3 trillion out there that is not in banks and it's not with the CBN. It's in circulation, it’s in people's homes. What's the point? Trying to delegitimize that money, don't you think that money is useful in the economy? If I had 200 million in a well somewhere in my house and I had a year to, maybe dispose of that money I would [00:54:00] probably use it to go buy.

Host: You would spend the money

Ugo: You spend the money now and that's what the economy needs. And not get me to go and buy dollars with the money and still do the same thing that you didn't want me to do. So I think that's just my own. The rationale around it is just completely off.

Host: I reserve my comments, probably talk to you about my comments offline. Okay. So my last question, and it's a mystery question from our previous guest, Mr. Unwana Esang, the CEO of Primera MFB and he says he had no clue who was coming in. So his question is, if you could go back 10 years and change something about yourself, what would it be?

Ugo: If I could go back 10 years, that would be 2011, right? 2012, you know me, I [00:55:00] like to speak about the economy a lot. That's a really important thing because you got to move on in life,There are things that happen and they all happen for a reason. But if I was to go back and change something, it was how much I was against removal of fuel subsidy back then. Oh my God. When I look back to that time, I just feel ashamed of myself. Even some of the things I wrote, articles I wrote back then and all the going to the streets. Because then Okonjo-Iweala and Sanusi were explaining to us: TAKE IT OFF!. That's probably what I'll change

Host: The protest.

Ugo: I think that we probably should have listened to the government and I think people should listen to the government a lot more than criticize. It's good to criticize to be honest, but I think you have to be able to discern. So that is why today when we even like our [00:56:00] approach to content in Nairametrics, remember I mentioned earlier, it's got to be data driven.  So try as much as possible to take your personal convictions or your opinions out of things and just allow data explain it for you. So even if you're criticizing, it is a lot more constructive. And I think at that time a lot of people did not bother about data. One, because data wasn't actually there. There was a lot of opaque data and people didn't really understand how much we were spending on fuel subsidy and importation at that time. And people didn't also trust some of the data that the CBN was pushing out at that time as well. I think, maybe early years of Sanusi or something. But I think now people are a lot more informed so people can, that's why the rationale is different now so people understand why you should take it off. Because people now have the data. So for me, I think that's something that I would change, 10 years ago. because aside from that, 10 years ago, I was living my life. I was enjoying life . [00:57:00]

Host: And you're still enjoying life. Which is good. But thankfully we have sites like Nairametrics to help us in this whole data dissemination. And also even you mentioned the word, a key word is actually to discern. How do we take ourselves out of what has been said? But could it be that what has being said is said in a way that would just doesn't make sense and would annoy us. Or is there some hidden truth behind it that hasn't come out? I don't know. That's a topic for another day. So the said disruption is interrelated and would ask, in the same way we asked the last guest, what is one perspective you would like to get from our next interviewer? We have no clue who this person is.

Ugo: Okay. So I think and I hope I get to [00:58:00] listen or hear that response.

Host: I'll make sure I push it out to you 

Ugo: I think for me, it’s what is this person's immediate solution to the challenge of “Japa” as much as it's also good because I think I do believe in brain exports. There's a project I was working on with Andrew Nevin as well. 

Host: Have you read the recent White Paper from PwC on Brain Capital?

Ugo: I agree on it. I did read it. Andrew Nevin shared it with me as well. I do believe in that a lot. But however, there's got to be a balance, right? Because, the more brain you export, [00:59:00] what's going to remain for development nationally. And so my question is how do you balance those things out and how do you manage that? I think it's a conundrum that a lot of people can resolve.  I was privileged to be in a session with HR executives of some multinationals and blue chip Nigerian companies I think was organized by banks some months ago and they had me come speak about the economy and stuff and at the end of my talk, they now went right into the debate. And the debate was how do they retain talent? They do understand "japa" is important but look, we've got a business to run. So how do we retain talent? How do we balance that out? How do you allow someone go abroad, better their life and still come back or even still [01:00:00] work with you while over there and all those kinds of things. So it's a conundrum that I would like to hear someone's view.

Host: It's an interesting perspective actually. I think the science behind the brain export, and Andrew Nevin will probably be the best person to explain this, is how can you, how can we retain that talent here? So not everyone wants to go into an office. Fair enough. Sure. Not everyone wants to work for an organization, but everyone wants great standard of living, right? So how can we ensure that whoever is here, the developer, the content creator, can earn a decent wage without leaving the country? So in this case, when we talk about decent wage, Or earning  FX, let me call it what it is and still remain here. And I think that's [01:01:00] one of the steps to retaining, or maybe your question to the "Japa" Syndrome, because truth be told, we're all looking for a better life.

Ugo: Yes. And that's the thing. So it's also beyond earning. Yeah. So people also want, better life. Nobody wants to bother about using generators or going to go and buy fuel or, insecurity as much as you also have insecurity abroad as well. Probably even more than here. But there are just some things that we don't want to deal with.

Host: The basic stuff.

Ugo: The basics. People also get irritated by our politicians. That's enough anger.

Host: We'll get there. Have you got your PVC?

Ugo: Oh, yes!.

Host: Okay cool! Just wanted to check that. Thank you Ugo! It's been a pleasure. Pleasure having you here. Listening to you. And I think I'm more- what's the word?- Financial savvy [01:02:00] just by listening to you. But thank you so much for your time. Keep doing what you're doing. Thank you. Looking out for the NGO. I think that's important. I think that we all need to be part of this change.And being part of this change is being literate in if it's tech, if it's finance, if it's whatever we find ourselves in. So thank you for the great work you're doing and keep doing good stuff at Nairametrics and Nairalytics.

Ugo: Thanks for having me as well. And I think I must close by expressing how amazed I am with your office. So if  you are listening you should come check the Experience Center. I think it's an amazing place PwC has built here and I hope that you can have a lot more people, come and learn and be part of it. It's really great. Thank you for [01:03:00] having me.

Host: Thank you for the plug too. . . Thank you.