New PwC Survey on US election business impact reveals majority of C-suite executives believe a recession will occur in the next six months

Executives cite US economic policy as the top policy risk under both a Harris and Trump administration

Executives identify US competitiveness as a key concern in this election regardless of who is president 

Wednesday, October 9, 2024 — In the lead up to the 2024 US presidential election, PwC surveyed 709 C-suite executives on an array of economic, political and regulatory risks that will affect business. While key indicators are moving in the right direction, particularly inflation and lower interest rates, executives in PwC’s latest Pulse Survey: Executive takes on Election 2024 aren’t convinced the US economy is out of the woods just yet. Among respondents, 61% see a recession happening in the next six months, a surprising jump from the 49% who said the same in our June 2024 Pulse Survey. Additionally, 44% of CEOs surveyed say changing priorities to prepare for potential recession is a significant challenge. 

The data indicates that the election is playing a significant role in how executives are preparing for the future and thinking about risk and growth. Most executives (76%) agree that there will be divided government after the election and 77% expect an increase in executive orders regardless of who is president. More than three quarters of executives (76%) say the outcome of the election will affect their approach to regulatory compliance, and 74% say the same about trade decisions. Additionally, 71% agree that, regardless of who is president, post-election trade and tax policies will hurt US competitiveness.  

Business leaders cite US economic policy as the biggest policy risk area under both candidates. The remaining policy risk areas vary respective to each candidate.  

Executives’ views on policy risks under a Harris administration

More than a third (36%) cite US corporate tax policy as a top-3 policy risk area under Harris, and 33% cite regulatory oversight, compared with 31% and 28% under Trump. The Harris administration’s proposed 28% corporate tax rate may affect domestic investments, with 75% of executives indicating they would significantly reduce US-based investments if the new tax rate were implemented.  

Executives’ views on policy risks under a Trump administration  

About a third (32%) cite foreign relations and trade (31%) as a top-3 policy risk area under Trump, compared with 25% and 27% under Harris. The Trump administration’s proposed universal tariffs also remain a concern among business leaders, with 75% agreeing that a 10% universal tariff on imports would significantly hinder their growth. 

Executives’ investment plans under Harris and Trump

Under either administration, at least 78% of executives expect to either maintain or increase their current levels of investment in the areas we asked about, but there are slight differences in investment strategies under each administration. Executives say they would increase investments in AI with either outcome, 52% for Harris and 53% for Trump, respectively. However, if Harris wins the election, 56% of executives say they would increase investments in compliance and regulatory, compared to 47% under Trump, and 55% would invest more in sustainability, compared to 46% under Trump. More than half (53%) of executives say they would increase investments in capital projects in the US if Trump wins the election, compared to 49% under Harris. 

"Executives are contending with an increasingly complex and volatile business landscape, further complicated by the upcoming election," said Tyson Cornell, PwC US Advisory Leader. "Looking forward, they are actively scenario planning to strategically balance risks and opportunities, positioning them to emerge stronger from any policy changes that may affect their business."