Our Take
Few changes to core scenarios. With the new exploratory analyses providing an avenue for the Fed to understand the impact of more unusual circumstances outside its scenario design framework, the core CCAR scenarios feature very slight changes from last year. For the most part, this should present little to no challenge to the largest banks’ mature stress testing and capital management practices. However, even though the drop in CRE prices is the same as last year’s scenario, it is a decline from current levels which are already stressed for many portfolios. That said, it remains unlikely that any banks will fall below their risk-based minimum capital requirements or face significant changes to their stress capital buffers (SCBs), which integrate Fed-modeled start-to-trough stressed capital depletions plus four quarters of planned dividends into each bank’s capital requirements.
Exploratory analyses are here to stay. Following last year’s experiment with an exploratory market shock (EMS), the Fed wants to continue to challenge the banks and explore the integration of funding and liquidity stress with the capital stress tests in a systematic way. While it is not clear whether firms will be required to run these scenarios internally, most will likely choose to do so to understand the potential impact, particularly those that had already designed “stagflation” style scenarios similar to last year’s EMS. Although they will not yet impact capital requirements, the question remains as to how the Fed will consider the results of these analyses in the supervisory process. Banks should take a close look at their funding models, especially deposit and secured funding models, and consider how the mix between non-interest bearing and interest bearing deposits is accounted for in their forecasts.
Our Take
Third time’s a charm? The proposal is the latest of several attempts by regulators to expand AML requirements to investment advisers, which has long been a subject of debate and controversy. There is significant wind behind this attempt, with Democratic Senators, the FBI and Treasury’s own AML risk assessment all calling out AML risks related to investment advisers. However, considering the historical difficulty of reaching a final rule and expected heavy industry pushback, all bets are off on whether this attempt will succeed. If the Administration changes following the upcoming election, the odds will tilt more toward the proposal stalling once again.
Long road to compliance for many. Investment advisers’ AML programs span a wide spectrum of maturity, with those that are affiliated with banks and mutual fund complexes generally having more advanced programs while many others lag far behind. If the proposal were to be finalized as-is, these less-advanced firms would have significant work ahead of them to develop the governance, controls, expertise and training necessary for a risk-based AML program, especially given the short one-year timeframe to comply. Notably, ERAs were included in the proposal, which typically have limited requirements under the Adviser Act and are located outside of the US. Many will likely look to delegate certain aspects of their programs to third parties, but it is important to remember that the firms will ultimately be held responsible for any deficiencies - and FinCEN has warned that it is not sufficient to rely on contractual provisions or certifications. Having strong third-party due diligence practices will be key for these firms that choose to delegate.
These notable developments hit our radar this week: