
Medical cost trend: Behind the numbers 2025
Help guide providers, payers, pharma companies and employers as they determine medical cost trends and the factors driving or dampening spending in 2025.
Health plans are facing another challenging year when it comes to forecasting, accruing, settling and managing their financial exposures. The world of payment for healthcare services is rapidly changing as the number of complex non-claims financial arrangements (NCFAs) increases, and that means plan executives should rethink many aspects of their financial operations. The payment ecosystem is suffering from inefficiencies, increased opportunities for errors and financial loss that erodes the bottom line.
NCFAs are claims outside the traditional claims payment system and include any financial compensation provided by a payer to a provider or health services vendor that is not submitted through the traditional claims adjudication processes. NCFAs are not new, but they are growing as the market adopts more alternative payment models (APMs) and value-based care (VBC) agreements. Examples of NCFAs include “upside and downside” shared risk arrangements in which payers and providers collaborate on financial and performance goals and share in potential financial gains or losses; performance-based incentives, and fixed fee-based payments between payers and providers or vendors.
The proliferation of payment arrangements and lack of standardized systems are leaving payers ill-equipped to handle NCFAs amid disparate systems, manual processes and heightened risk of financial loss and duplication. At the same time, there is an influx of specialty payment models and vendors contracting with payers to help reduce medical expenses, administrative costs and operational burdens, as well as take on risk. Many payers are seeing 50% to 70% of their medical expense payments flowing through NCFAs, with fee-for-service claims now representing the minority of payments.
Within this environment, there are many interrelated dynamics for payers to consider when it comes to NCFAs.
A wide range of opportunities in people, process and technology are available to payers to help manage NCFAs. Many payers are either considering or implementing workflow enhancements, transitioning to a scalable, automated and centralized approach to manage NCFAs effectively.
Several common solutions have emerged.
We can provide you with strategic approaches that can help you overcome the challenges associated with NCFAs.
Help guide providers, payers, pharma companies and employers as they determine medical cost trends and the factors driving or dampening spending in 2025.
Forge your future by recognizing how value in healthcare is shifting and changing your business model to deliver that value in the second half of the decade.
Health services deal volumes through November 15 declined by 9 percent from 2023 levels but continued to show resilience from peak volumes of 2022.