Next in space 2025

Commercial trends redefining the future of space

Space: The next industrial revolution

The commercial space sector is at a turning point. The rapid commercialization of space is redefining how humanity interacts with the final frontier. Once the domain of governments and big aerospace, it’s now drawing everyone — from mining and construction to hospitality. The potential for business growth and innovation is out of this world.

Pivotal trends in 2025 fall into these categories:

The growth trajectory of the space economy
Space as a global marketplace
Emerging opportunities in a trillion-dollar space economy
Key challenges facing space businesses
Strategies for success
What you can do

The growth trajectory of the space economy

The Space Foundation reported that the global space economy reached revenues of US$570 billion in 2023, reflecting a 7.4% increase over the previous year — in line with a five-year CAGR of 7.3%, and nearly double the total from a decade ago. As of July 2024, commercial revenues account for almost 80% of industry activity.¹

Future projections suggest that the global space economy may grow to as much as $2 trillion by 2040. While government spending in the sector continues to grow,² private companies are expected to take the lead, driving innovation through increased investment and strategic collaboration between commercial and government entities.

The rapid growth of the space economy is driven in part by advancements in propulsion systems, satellite miniaturization and declining launch costs. Reusable launch technology — led by companies such as SpaceX, Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance (ULA) — has further accelerated the expansion of the commercial space sector. These innovations have significantly lowered costs and increased access to orbit, enabling greater private-sector participation and investment. SpaceX’s reusable rockets have made spaceflight more affordable, allowing for more frequent missions. Blue Origin’s New Glenn and New Shepard vehicles are broadening human and cargo access to space. Meanwhile, ULA, with its Vulcan Centaur rocket, is playing a critical role in launching national security payloads, commercial satellites and deep-space exploration missions. As a result, launch activity has surged. Before 2012, annual space launches never exceeded 170 objects. But since 2019, each year has set a record. In 2023, 2,664 objects were launched into space — 2,166 of them from US soil.³

At the same time, governments are redefining space strategies, regulatory frameworks and funding priorities to support commercial expansion, recognizing that public-private partnerships are crucial to advancing human and robotic presence beyond Earth orbit. For example, in his second inaugural address on January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to deep-space exploration, declaring the goal of sending astronauts to Mars. Complementing that vision, US executive orders announced in February 2025 aimed at reducing regulatory friction and modernizing legacy space policies could create additional momentum for commercial ventures and infrastructure development. As the US, China and other spacefaring nations push forward with ambition plans, executives should ask themselves: How can we position ourselves to capitalize on this next industrial revolution? The next decade will likely see the foundation of a true off-world economy. Those who act now can help shape the landscape for generations to come.

The next big shift: Space as a global marketplace

For decades, space exploration was led by national agencies, but that has changed due to private investment. Advances in reusable rocket technology, satellite servicing and in-space manufacturing are creating new business models.

The emerging cislunar economy — the economy spanning low Earth orbit (LEO) to the moon and beyond — presents key opportunities in infrastructure development, satellite servicing and resource extraction. Both governments and private enterprises are working on establishing a sustained human presence in cislunar space. This includes mining operations at the lunar poles and permanent habitats at key Lagrange points (which enable equal access to Earth and lunar orbits, providing optimal locations for habitable way stations for cargo and personnel between Earth and the moon).

To sustain long-term economic activity beyond Earth, space-focused industries will likely require essential infrastructure, including space-based energy generation, logistics, communications and orbital construction. Companies investing in these foundational areas today can shape tomorrow’s off-world economy.

Interstellar pathways and a space highway system can redefine economic growth, much like the US interstate system did for transportation. Their continued evolution is paving the way for industries we can barely envision today.

Emerging opportunities in a trillion-dollar space economy

New technologies and investment trends are unlocking opportunities across multiple industries.

Orbital construction and in-space manufacturing: Advances in 3D printing and microgravity could reduce reliance on costly Earth-based launches, paving the way for autonomous space-based production.
Lunar resource extraction: Water-ice deposits at the moon’s poles could support a fuel-based economy for deep-space transportation network and long-term lunar operations.
AI and robotics: Autonomous systems can be key in asteroid mining, orbital maintenance and robotic lunar surface operation, enhancing efficiency and safety in space operations.
Space-based energy production: Innovations in solar power satellites and fusion-propulsion technology could revolutionize global energy markets, offering scalable, off-world energy solutions for Earth and beyond.
Launch rideshare and space trucking: The rise of affordable launch capacity is shifting the focus from rocket engineering to payload delivery, enabling more companies to deploy satellites, scientific instruments and cargo to cislunar space and beyond.

These advancements could enable a broader range of space infrastructure in the years ahead. As launch costs continue to decline and commercial investment increases, they are also paving the way for more complex capabilities — such as orbital fuel depots, autonomous cargo systems, robotic landers and other platforms that support long-duration missions. Taken together, these developments have the potential to push the space economy beyond current forecasts.

Certainty and safety: Key challenges facing space businesses

The opportunities are huge, but space-economy businesses still face significant issues.

Regulatory uncertainty: As competition among nations and private entities intensifies and the sector becomes more crowded, the lack of a holistic legal framework for space activities could increase the risk in areas such as data security, proprietary technology and sustainability. At the same time, as noted earlier, executive orders in the United States could create new opportunities for commercial providers previously constrained by legacy policies.

LEO supply-chain constraints: Although the cost of launch to LEO has fallen steeply since 2010 (to $2,000 per kilogram today or even less),⁴ deploying heavy materials into orbit remains a logistical hurdle. Still, the increased frequency of launches is mitigating traditional payload constraints, offering commercial providers more opportunities to deploy products and services.

Space debris and safety concerns: The increasing congestion in LEO raises concerns about orbital debris, necessitating proactive mitigation strategies. To help address these challenges, commercial providers and space agencies are increasingly leveraging advanced AI capabilities to identify, analyze and predict the movement of space debris.

Ways to navigate these challenges

Public-private partnerships: Collaborations between governments and corporations can help drive innovation — so long as companies are careful to safeguard both existing and newly generated intellectual property.
Standardized regulations: Establishing international legal frameworks can foster growth.
Sustainable practices: Debris mitigation strategies and green propulsion technologies can enable long-term viability.

Winning in the new space economy: Strategies for success

The biggest players in the space sector today, both in the US and globally, are vertically integrated to an exceptional degree. Some new entrants may seek to build out their business according to that model. Others can do the opposite, seeking — or creating — unfilled niches in the space ecosystem.

Either way, leaders should address the segmentation of the space industry value chain. We analyze the space marketplace today as offering three streams through which players, both new and established, can realize value.

Upstream entails getting to space. This includes rockets and launch facilities, telemetry, satellite manufacturers and space mining technology.
Midstream focuses on operating in space. Capabilities in this segment include in-orbit logistics, satellite maintenance and responsible decommissioning, space habitats and Earth-to-LEO communications.
Downstream entails consumer applications. These include space tourism, commercial real estate in space and space-based data services. The latter involves packaging and monetizing data collected in orbit — especially in low Earth orbit (LEO) — and delivering it to Earth-based customers. As space assets continue to proliferate and connect securely with terrestrial networks, new markets are opening up across both public and private sectors.

What you can do

Assess capabilities for the new space economy. Evaluate current strengths and use AI to help identify opportunities for expansion in affordable launch services and adjacent markets.
Adopt AI and digital engineering. Integrate AI and digital engineering to enhance spacecraft design, flight sciences and production.
Form strategic industry connections. Collaborate with launch providers to expand operations into cislunar and deep-space markets.
Build a resilient space industrial base. Establish coalitions to secure supply chains and infrastructure, confirming long-term sustainability.
Recognize space as critical infrastructure. Advocate for space assets to be classified as critical infrastructure, securing protection and funding on par with energy and banking.

Enable fully autonomous deep-space operations. Leverage AI-driven automation for exploration, observation and infrastructure with minimal human oversight.
Integrate ISRU into the commercial economy. Develop supply chains that use in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) to support sustainable off-world industries.
Develop self-sustaining space factories. Invest in planetary and orbital manufacturing to reduce reliance on Earth-based materials and enable industrial independence.

Tim Ford contributed to this report.

_{Notes

¹“Space Foundation Announces $570B Space Economy in 2023, Driven by Steady Private and Public Sector Growth” (press release), Space Foundation, 18 July 2024.

²Ibid.

³Our World in Data, “Data Page: Annual number of objects launched into space,” from Edouard Mathieu and Max Roser, “Space Exploration and Satellites,” 2022; data adapted from the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, updated to 2023. The objects included in this data set include satellites, probes, landers, crewed spacecrafts, and space-station flight elements. Note that the figures cited are not restricted to LEO but also include objects launched beyond it.

⁴Our World in Data, “Cost of space launches to low Earth orbit”; data source: CSIS Aerospace Security Project, 2022.}