Geopolitics Unraveled: Trends for 2024
In this episode of Cross-Border Tax Talks, Doug McHoney interviews Craig Stronberg, a Senior Director in PwC's Intelligence Team, about major geopolitical trends impacting business leaders and the operating environment. They discuss topics such as protectionism, the US-China rivalry, distrust, the shift in global power, tech disruption, labor, and the Middle East. They also highlight the importance of business leaders taking stock of lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential risks associated with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Timestamps:
- 1:15 – Getting started with Craig’s favorite spy story about a double agent Spaniard named Garbo, and a plug for the Spy Museum in Washington.
- 3:22 – Regarding major geopolitical trends, what should business leaders expect in 2024?
- 5:24 – What is VUCA (Volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) and how will it impact businesses and the operating environment in 2024?
- 8:40 – What are the key geopolitical trends for 2024, including protectionism and the US-China rivalry?
- 12:19 – Besides the US, where are we seeing protectionism, especially for critical technology, critical infrastructure and data?
- 14:20 – Where do US-China relations stand, and what are the potential challenges for business leaders?
- 18:49 – Who is distrusting whom? How does trust make geopolitics work?
- 21:34 – What is the geopolitical trend of the supply-side world?
- 27:15 – How is tech disruption a trend for 2024?
- 29:13 – Let's discuss the shifting global power and the rise of the global south
- 32:53- Global power playing out in the tax space with the UN, the OECD, the US and Pillar Two
- 33:34 – What is the impact of the 50 elections on global power dynamics? Where is the most uncertainty?
- 35:16 – Where are the shifts in Labor and why is it a geopolitical trend?
- 37:39 – Do business leaders need to focus on the Middle East as a potential disruptor?
- 39:47 - Has World War III already started?
- 43:12 – What key threats might keep business leaders up at night?
- 45:45 - Closing remarks and appreciation for the discussion
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