The 2024 Global Economic Crimes Survey (GECS) covers the immediate last two years after the Covid-19 pandemic subsided. This period was characterised by adaptation and normalisation of new ways of doing things. The new normal includes adoption of hybrid working models that combine both remote and in-person collaboration; optimization of supply chains; adaptation of consumer preferences such as omnichannel strategies; and refinement of new digital, business resilience and risk management strategies.
The economic crime environment appears to have evolved with the shift in operational practices from the pre-pandemic era, through the pandemic to the post-pandemic era underscoring the need to continuously update risk management practices and strategies. For instance, the cybercrime incident rate that ranked a distant eight (8) in the GECS 2020 Uganda report (covering the pre-pandemic years of 2018 and 2019) has now leap-frogged other forms of surveyed economic crimes to rank a close number two (2) behind customer fraud.
Globally, cybercrime is now reported as the most prevalent form of economic crime at an incident rate of 44% and as the most disruptive by 40% of the respondents. Similarly, the PwC Eastern Africa 2024 CEO Survey cites cybercrime as an increasing area of concern with 28% of CEOs citing it as a threat up from 22% in 2023. The Eastern Africa CEOs also cite macroeconomic volatility as the top area of concern in the next 12 months. Macroeconomic volatilities come with market uncertainties, financial pressures and incentives which are fertile grounds for convergence of the elements of the fraud triangle. Counter-fraud practitioners and risk management functions should therefore sharpen their tool kits for potential headwinds ahead.
Customer fraud was reported as the most experienced form of economic crime in Uganda with an incident rate of 40% followed closely by cybercrime at an incident rate of 37%. Adoption of technology might have fuelled the shift in the nature of experienced economic crimes with a rise in cybercrime incidents while traditional forms such as asset misappropriation and procurement fraud have fallen down the pecking order with time.