Explore possible 2024 US election outcomes. From trade and tax policy to regulation, learn about potential changes and how executives can prepare.
Executives see economic, political and regulatory risks no matter who wins the 2024 US presidential election, according to our October 2024 Pulse Survey. But what would divided government mean for business? What about a Republican or Democratic sweep?
Divided government makes it harder to pass legislation and likely means both parties having to reach across the aisle. It could also mean more executive orders either way, which is what 77% of executives in our survey predicted.
A Republican or Democrat sweep would give the president more room to try to push through key aspects of his or her policy agendas. The extent to which either could enact bold reforms would depend on how big the majority is, and both candidates would likely have to find internal consensus and compromise. Sweeps would make it possible to apply budget reconciliation to avoid the 60-vote threshold needed in the Senate to push through tax legislation.
Other topics in focus this election include regulation, artificial intelligence, tariffs, climate and the economy. Learn more about the different election outcome scenarios and check back for updates and insights as they unfold.
2024 election outcome scenarios
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68% of executives say the uncertain macroeconomic environment is a moderate or serious risk to their company
While key economic indicators are moving in the right direction, executives are still wary about the economic outlook. More than two-thirds (68%) of executives responding to our Pulse Survey see the uncertain macroeconomic environment as a business risk. And despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates, 61% of executives responding to our survey said they expect a recession in the next six months, up from 49% in June.
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75% of executives expect more regulation, regardless of who wins the White House
Risk leaders regularly find themselves dealing with uncertainty. The election just adds another layer of complexity. To prepare, 89% of risk executives responding to our latest Pulse Survey say they have contingency plans for managing risks based on the election’s outcome. They’re also monitoring election-related risks to their company’s location strategy and supply chain.
Financial services executives say US economic policy is the highest-ranked policy risk under either potential administration
92% of health industries executives say the outcome of the election will affect their company’s approach to regulatory compliance
80% of tech, media and telecom executives say the election outcome could significantly change how they do business
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75% of executives say that cyber attacks are a moderate or serious risk
With evolving technology, ever-present data, work-from-home policies and a growing array of bad actors creating new points of vulnerability for companies, it’s no surprise that 75% of C-suite executives in our October Pulse Survey say that cyber attacks are a moderate or serious risk, topping the list of business risks. As executives work to thwart cyber attackers, they must also comply with a maze of cybersecurity regulations – a high-pressure and complicated effort – and something that will unlikely change drastically no matter who wins the White House.
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75% of executives say that their company would significantly reduce investments in the US if the corporate tax rate increased to 28%
The prospect of a higher corporate tax rates is weighing on C-suite executives and tax leaders in particular. Such an increase would make the combined federal and average state rate the second-highest tax rate among OECD countries, behind Colombia’s 35%. Tax leaders are considering ways to mitigate a potential increase and assessing the implications on their companies and business in general. Concerns about tax policy changes go beyond the US corporate rate, however, and include international tax changes scheduled to take effect in 2026, as well as the US adoption of a Pillar Two-compliant per country GILTI regime.
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75% of executives say that a 10% universal tariff would significantly hinder their company’s growth
Businesses have been facing a more protectionist environment in recent years, and President Trump’s tariff increases from his first term stayed through the Biden administration. But the outcome of the current election could mean more trade policy changes, which would directly impact businesses. It’s no surprise, then, that 74% of executives in our recent Pulse Survey said the outcome of the election would affect their company’s trade decisions somewhat or to a great extent.
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47% of tech and information leaders say it’s a significant challenge to keep up with expanding AI policy and standards
No matter who wins the White House, it’s full steam ahead for business investment in artificial intelligence (AI). Our October Pulse survey shows that 52% of C-suite executives expect to increase AI investments if Harris wins, and 53% said the same about a Trump victory. Still, as executives plan continued investment, they’re also preparing for regulation. Current AI policy is all over the map, making for a murky landscape. And while there was no significant federal AI legislation or regulation in 2024, as Congress was still seemingly in education mode, executives are on notice. Nearly half (47%) of tech and information leaders in particular say it’s a significant challenge to keep up with the expansion of AI policy and standards.
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64% of executives say climate change is a moderate or serious risk
The election results could impact sustainability regulations and incentives for businesses, influencing how companies approach their sustainability practices. A Harris administration will likely focus on maintaining Biden-era policies that prioritize sustainability in alliances, trade and economic plans, while a Trump administration will likely focus on rolling back Biden-era environmental regulations that raised costs for oil and natural gas companies and restricted drilling on federal lands and waters.
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71% of executives say the outcome of the election will affect their company’s business decisions around acquisitions or divestitures somewhat or to a great extent
The election results may give dealmakers a chance to move no matter who wins. Dealmakers prefer certainty, and once they know who’ll be in the White House, they’ll know how to proceed. While antitrust and regulatory scrutiny would vary considerably under a President Trump or Harris, but the majority of executives plan to continue to invest in M&A under either administration, our latest Pulse Survey shows.
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CEOs brace for post-election changes
Seventy-four percent of CEOs agree or strongly agree that the election could significantly change how their company does business, finds PwC’s latest Pulse Survey. The presidential candidates’ economic policies and stances on regulating technology, AI and data are top concerns. Uncertainty can reveal opportunities — yet corporate culture may slow a CEO’s ability to take advantage of it.
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Why CFOs are hitting pause on investment decisions
The current business environment is causing CFOs to be judicious about spending. Eighty-four percent of CFOs surveyed in PwC’s latest Pulse Survey say they’re delaying at least one investment decision. With so much uncertainty, ranging from the presidential election to interest rate changes, accurate predictions have become harder.
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COOs looking for tech to boost efficiency and keep an eye on regulations
COOs are increasingly concerned about the pressures they face, with 86% of operations leaders in our October 2024 Pulse Survey identifying a lack of time for long-term strategic thinking as a significant challenge to achieving their priorities, up from 61% who expressed similar concerns in June 2024. The outcome of the 2024 election could further exacerbate these pressures, as three-fourths of COOs believe that, regardless of who is president, post-election trade and tax policies will hurt US competitiveness. The same percentage feel the US regulatory environment stifles innovation. Despite these challenges, COOs are pushing forward with digital transformation, with 55% prioritizing artificial intelligence (AI) and 49% focusing on the Internet of Things (IoT) and connected devices to enhance their operations.
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- What’s important to COOs
- COOs pursue tech effectiveness amid planning, policy concerns
- PwC’s Digital Trends in Operations Survey
Election complicates risk outlook, planning — now what?
Risk executives are navigating uncharted territory, with nearly 90% citing new risks, regulations and talent challenges as barriers to their priorities, according to our October 2024 Pulse Survey. The upcoming elections add to the uncertainty, with most expecting increased litigation, regulation, and executive orders regardless of the outcome. Nearly half also strongly agree that a contested election would be a major distraction for their company.
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What CIOs need to know about AI policy
With new capabilities — and vulnerabilities — debuting seemingly daily, it’s no wonder information and technology leaders are thinking about AI. Nearly half (47%) rate keeping up with the expansion of AI policy and standards as a significant challenge, according to our October 2024 Pulse Survey. The growing complexity of these regulations underscores the seriousness of AI-related risks, which are becoming a critical concern for organizations. More than two thirds (68%) of tech leaders cite AI legal and reputational risks as a moderate or serious risk to their company.
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Tax bills not the only thing at stake as new risks loom
As tax leaders consider the upcoming election, 56% rank a potential higher US corporate tax rate as a top-3 tax-related issue that would affect their company. And they’re weighing what they’d do to offset the effects, according to our October Pulse Survey. More than half would consider either cutting labor costs or relocating revenue-generating activities outside the US – or both. But the US corporate tax rate is just one of their concerns. They’re also worried about international tax changes scheduled to take effect in 2026. All of these issues highlight the expanding remit of tax leaders.
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Directors' concerns: Election impact and regulatory environment
Directors already had a heightened sense for risk before adding the election into the equation, according to PwC’s latest Pulse Survey. While even the most experienced boards can’t see around every corner, they should strive to remain agile, stay current in the face of election uncertainty and prepare for different outcomes that could disrupt or accelerate current trends. Each of those scenarios needs board input and oversight.
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The impact of election on talent market: Key considerations for CHROs
Human capital leaders are closely watching the November elections for potential impacts on the talent market, including issues like minimum wage, paid leave, and executive compensation. While some CHROs are waiting, others are actively influencing policy, according to our October 2024 PwC Pulse Survey. In the meantime, HR leaders are shifting focus to areas they can control, such as employee work location. With only 36% prioritizing flexibility, they are now emphasizing access to skilled workers and cost savings through a reduced office footprint.
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PwC’s Pulse Survey: CHROs reassess location strategies as they eye election impact
Tight budgets, big wins: How CMOs are navigating change
Data privacy is often top of mind for today’s CMO. As you rely on customer data more and more for targeted advertising, personalized marketing and customer experience optimization, staying ahead of regulatory shifts is critical. And marketing leaders see election-driven changes coming, according to our latest Pulse Survey. Anticipating these changes and understanding evolving consumer priorities will be crucial.
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Many financial services (FS) dealmakers are taking a cautious approach to transactions given economic, regulatory or monetary policy uncertainties. But the election may change that. In our October 2024 Pulse Survey, 84% of FS executives say the election outcome will affect, either somewhat or to a great extent, their company’s business decisions about acquisitions or divestitures (compared to 71% of all executives).
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Two concerns loom large for technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) executives this election cycle: regulatory compliance and cybersecurity. The sector is preparing for potential policy shifts that could have repercussions for digital platforms and content providers. According to our October 2024 Pulse Survey, 80% of TMT leaders say the election outcome could significantly change how they do business.
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As the 2024 elections approach, health industries (HI) executives are watching regulatory, trade and tax policy signals. Regardless of who becomes president, HI executives hold strong views that the outcome of the election will affect their company’s business decisions somewhat or to a great extent, particularly their approach to regulatory compliance (92% versus 76% overall). HI leaders say the same about their financial forecasts and budget decisions (86% versus 75% overall).
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Industrial products (IP) companies are keeping a close eye on the November elections, particularly when it comes to trade policy, according to our October 2024 Pulse Survey. Three quarters of IP leaders say the outcome of the election will either somewhat or significantly change their company’s trade decisions. This is likely due to IP companies being heavily reliant on raw materials and components from overseas. Trade policy — including tariffs, trade agreements and sanctions — often affect the cost and availability of these materials.
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Most of the energy, utilities and resources (EUR) executives surveyed say the election outcome will affect their approach to regulatory compliance (79% either somewhat or to a great extent), according to our October 2024 Pulse Survey.
Scenario planning around evolving energy policy can help leaders be ready. From permitting for pipelines, drilling and infrastructure to the nuances of rate-setting, navigating the regulatory process and consistently executing can be a competitive differentiator for energy and utilities companies. Executives should proactively engage with lawmakers at all levels. While much authority sits with federal agencies and regulatory appointments may be delayed in times of divided government, much of day-to-day regulation happens at the more local levels.
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As the US presidential election nears, consumer markets (CM) companies are evaluating its potential impact on their operations. According to our October 2024 Pulse Survey, 74% of CM leaders agree or strongly agree that the outcome of the election could significantly change how they do business. Regardless of the results, CM leaders strongly agree that post-election trade and tax policies could harm US competitiveness (33% versus 27% of all respondents).
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