The mining sector continues to be a cornerstone of Zambia’s economy, contributing significantly to the country's gross domestic product (GDP), tax revenues and export earnings. This report analyses the sector's performance in 2023 and where available, up to August 2024, highlighting recent developments and prospects for the sector. In the report, we investigate key policy changes during this time and assess their potential impact on the sector. Our insights aim to inform stakeholders—policymakers, investors, mining companies and anyone else with interests in the sector —about the current state and future direction of Zambia's mining industry.
Zambia has faced significant economic challenges in recent years. Initially, these challenges stemmed from the country's unsustainable debt burden and the Covid-19 pandemic. Subsequently, geopolitical tensions and conflicts have exacerbated the situation. Now, the devastating consequences of this year’s climate-change-induced drought have put further strain on the domestic economy. In addition, there has been a significant decrease in the mining sector's productivity in recent years, which has also had a negative impact on economic growth.
Mining: an essential contributor to the economy
Mining continues to be an essential contributor to the economy and it is expected that the sector will play a critical role in Zambia's much sought after economic recovery. This expectation is anchored mainly in the following factors:
- Policy amendments: policies have been amended to make the sector more attractive for investment and increase the benefits the country and its citizens derive from it.
- Efforts to resolve issues: concerted efforts have been made to resolve significant issues in the sector that have impeded production.
- Positive prospects for new discoveries: there are positive prospects regarding discoveries of Zambia's primary mineral, copper, and other minerals, especially those linked to the energy transition.
- Bullish commodity prices: the price of commodities, especially copper, has remained bullish for a sustained period and is expected to remain elevated for a long time.
- Growth in other key minerals: the output of other vital minerals, such as precious stones, has grown, contributing to greater diversity of output. This report is our third annual mining sector report. In our inaugural 2022 edition, we explored the sector's history to understand the factors that have contributed to a decline in Zambia’s mining output in recent years.
Our 2023 report focused on understanding policy changes and their effect on the sector's outlook. In this report, we again analyse proposed and actual changes along with the associated risks and benefits.
In preparing our report, we have used data up to December 2023 and, where available, up to August 2024.
