Our experience

Impact Assessment of Road Traffic Safety Plan for 2017 - 2020

Client

Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Latvia

Background

Improving road traffic safety (“RTS”) is important for the general public as this helps prevent highway traffic accidents, save lives, and minimise injuries. The EU has set a very ambitious RTS goal of ensuring that deaths and severe injuries in highway traffic accidents are near zero by 2050 (Vision Zero). This goal is to be achieved by ensuring a gradual reduction in deaths and severe injuries over the period from 2010 to 2050.

With the implementation period of the current RTS plan for 2017 - 2020 expiring in 2020, we were to assess how the plan helps improve RTS. Our study aimed to identify policy priorities for the next short-term policy planning document for the RTS plan for 2021 - 2025 (setting targets for 2021 - 2030).

Challenges

We were allowed a short time frame to carry out a comprehensive assessment, using quantitative and qualitative methods of analysis, of how efficiently Latvia has achieved its RTS policy goals.
Data for assessing the present situation was not available in sufficient detail for all the aspects to be assessed.
The scenario for achieving the goal of reducing deaths and injuries in highway traffic accidents by 50% over the period from 2021 to 2030 was difficult to calculate.

Our solution

In preparing our assessment, we used the Safe System approach, which provides a framework for improving RTS policies in the light of EU best practice and focusing on the elimination of deaths and severe injuries. The Safe System approach is based on a comprehensive and active model that involves using a range of diverse RTS elements. All the elements should work together to create layers of protection in building a system that remains effective even if one of the safety elements fails. Our study evaluates the traffic participant element, the vehicle element and the environmental element in providing RTS. The assessment covers sectors that are directly or indirectly linked to RTS (construction, education, health, and public order).

In the light of our assessment, we modelled four alternative scenarios forecasting how the RTS goals would be achieved. The model covers the period from 2020 to 2030. Based on the modelling results, we chose the most appropriate scenario for Latvia capable of achieving the goals included in the RTS plan. The scenario provides for continuing the current measures coupled with substantial investment in highway infrastructure. Implementing the scenario can achieve a 61% reduction in deaths and a 50% reduction in severe injuries in keeping with the goals set.

The outcome

As a result of our study, we prepared proposals according to their materiality in eight different categories: improving the planning documents; improving the apportionment of RTS policymakers’ responsibility; implementing a scenario suitable for Latvia’s conditions; implementing measures oriented to a safe traffic participant; monitoring results achieved in RTS; implementing measures oriented to all safety elements; implementing measures oriented to a safe vehicle; and implementing measures oriented to a safe environment. Our assessment will serve as a basis for drawing up the planning document for the next period by highlighting priorities and key policies.