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Bisnis Indonesia - Prospek BUMN: Adu kuat magnet saham JSMR
7 May 2024
By Dionisio Damara
The stock of PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk (JSMR) has been in the red zone for the past month. However, its performance in the first quarter of 2024 and upcoming annual shareholders’ meeting could potentially bring positive sentiment to the stock movement of this toll road state-owned enterprise (SOE).
By the close of trading on Monday (6/5), JSMR's stock rose by 7.96% to Rp5,425 per share. This price marks a year-to-date (YtD) increase of 11.40%, but it dipped by 4.41% in the last month.
JSMR's stock is anticipated to gain several positive sentiments, especially following the decision to distribute dividends for fiscal year (FY) 2023 at the annual shareholders' meeting on 8 May 2024.
Miftahul Khaer, a member of Kiwoom Sekuritas' research team, anticipates that the annual shareholders' meeting will have a positive impact on JSMR's stock movement.
“We think the direction will be positive. The annual shareholders’ meeting will also discuss JSMR’s dividends for FY 2023. The dividend ratio is quite optimistic at around 15%-30%,” he told Bisnis.
Jasa Marga’s annual shareholders’ meeting will discuss several agendas, including its annual report, utilisation of 2023 net profit, and management changes.
Regarding its 2023 net profit utilisation, Jasa Marga is committed to distribute dividends with a ratio of around 15%-30%. This decision was made under the authority of the government through the SOE Ministry that was then adjusted to the company’s capabilities.
Jasa Marga did not distribute dividends during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, its management decided to distribute 20% dividends from its 2022 net profit that amounted to Rp2.75 trillion.
Meanwhile, Miftahul also mentioned that its performance report in the first quarter of 2024 was also a factor that encouraged JSMR’s stock movement. During the period, the company obtained a revenue of Rp6.04 trillion, marking a 35.98% year-on-year (YoY) growth.
The company's revenue from the toll road segment amounted to Rp3.91 trillion, reflecting a growth of 29.96% (YoY). Additionally, the construction segment contributed Rp1.83 trillion, while other businesses contributed Rp293.88 billion.
With the rise in revenue, the company's primary expenses also increased by 43.84% YoY to Rp3.63 trillion. Consequently, JSMR's gross profit for the first quarter of 2024 amounted to Rp2.41 trillion, representing a YoY increase of 25.61%.
However, after factoring in other revenues and expenses, Jasa Marga recorded a current net profit attributable to the parent entity owner of Rp585.92 billion, marking a YoY growth of 17.76%.
Following this, Kiwoom Sekuritas recommends buying Jasa Marga's stock with a target price of Rp5,700. Similarly, MNC Sekuritas also suggests buying with a target price of Rp5,100 at the support level and Rp5,400 at the resistance level.
According to the Bloomberg consensus table, 16 analysts reviewing JSMR's stock recommend buying, while the remaining three suggest holding. The target price for the next 12 months is Rp6,259, reflecting a potential return of 16.5% from the current price of Rp5,375.
Prospect
On the other hand, J. P Morgan’s research team led by Henry Wibowo sees that the rise in Bank Indonesia's benchmark interest rate to 6.25% might push the weighted average cost of debt (WACD) beyond the company's guideline to 7.5%-8%.
According to J.P Morgan, the risk could negatively impact revenue. A neutral perspective is taken on JSMR, given that its revenue is expected to be revised soon.
On a separate occasion, Jasa Marga Corporate Secretary and Chief Administration Officer Nixon Sitorus stated that the company was optimistic about its performance this year improving from 2023 thanks to an increase in traffic volume and toll road tariff adjustments at the start of 2024.
Nixon explained that Jasa Marga continuously implemented various strategic initiatives to maintain performance growth and manage financial health.
“Regarding the top line, the company ensures that its business revenue growth target could be realised by maintaining traffic volume, adjusting toll road tariffs in accordance with its business plan, and increasing revenue from other businesses,” he stated.
Until the first quarter of 2024, Jasa Marga had adjusted the tariffs of Cengkareng-Batuceper-Kunciran toll road and Serpong-Cinere toll road as well as integrated Jakarta-Cikampek toll road with Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed elevated toll road.
At the start of the year, several toll segments commenced operation, including Pamulang-Cinere-Raya Bogor toll road and Pamulang-Cinere segment of Serpong-Cinere toll road section 2 spanning 3.64 km managed by PT Cinere Serpong Jaya that is part of Jasa Marga Group.
Nixon added that the consolidation of three Trans-Java toll road segments from PT Jasamarga Semarang Batang, PT Jasamarga Solo Ngawi, and PT Jasamerga Ngawi Kertosono Kediri in July 2023 also affected JSMR’s positive performance at the start of 2024.
Jasa Marga currently holds the largest share of toll roads, totalling 1,264 km in operational length, representing 47% of Indonesia's operational toll roads. Moreover, the company manages a total of 1,736 km in toll road concessions.
Until the first quarter of 2024, JSMR logged a total asset of Rp130.41 trillion, marking a YtD increase of 0.86%. Meanwhile, its liabilities increased by 0.53% YtD to Rp90.87 trillion, while its equities reached Rp39.51 trillion, reflecting a YtD increase of 1.62%.
Meanwhile, cash and cash equivalents at the end of March 2024 amounted to Rp3.92 trillion, marking a decline of 27.98% from Rp5.45 trillion.
