Traffic recovery on Jasa Marga toll roads
This article has been translated by PwC Indonesia as part of our Indonesia Infrastructure News Service. PwC Indonesia has not checked the accuracy of, and accepts no responsibility for the content.
Investor Daily - Pemulihan trafik jalan tol Jasa Marga
26 October 2021
By: Parluhutan Situmorang
The relaxation of PPKM (public activity restrictions) in Java-Bali is starting to positively impact the revenue of PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) toll segments. If the Covid-19 pandemic is controlled until the end of this year, traffic on all of the company’s toll road segments is predicted to go back to normal or will only be 5% lower from the normal condition.
That prediction is made as the number of vehicles on Jasa Marga toll segments has reached 1.22 million vehicles throughout 2021 compared to vehicle traffic on the company’s toll segments throughout 2020 that declined by 18% to 1.13 million vehicles.
BRI Danareksa Sekuritas analyst, Maria Renata, revealed that the toll road revenue of Jasa Marga had been higher by 8% since October 2021 compared to the normal level. “The PPKM relaxation and the odd-even policy implementation in Jakarta are the main factors,” she wrote in her research.
Assuming PPKM will no longer be implemented until the end of this year, she thinks that the company’s toll road revenue will only be lower by 5% from the normal condition. According to Maria, relaxing PPKM from the end of July 2021 is directly impacting the toll road revenue of Jasa Marga.
Meanwhile, when PPKM was tightened, the company’s toll road revenue decreased by 37%, which was almost the same as the decline during Eid this year that reached 40%. However, that condition did not go on for long. PPKM relaxation in several areas are increasing the company’s toll road revenue. Moreover, the company’s toll road revenue has been higher by 8% compared to the normal condition since October 2021.
However, there is still probability that PPKM will be tightened again if the number of Covid-19 cases increase in the following weeks. This can be a negative sentiment for the company’s financial performance this year.
Meanwhile, tariff increase on several toll roads can increase the company’s revenue from the realisation in the normal condition. Those factors are encouraging BRI Danareksa Sekurtias to maintain their buy recommendation for JSMR shares with a target price Rp5,100. That target considers vehicle traffic on the company’s toll segments that has increased to 1.22 million this year.
BRI Danareksa Sekuritas predicts Jasa Marga’s net profit will surge to Rp1.17 trillion this year from Rp501 billion last year. The same goes for the revenue that is predicted to increase from Rp9.58 trillion to Rp10.83 trillion. The target assumes that traffic on the company’s toll segments will reach 1.22 million vehicles this year compared to last year’s traffic that reached 1.13 million vehicles.
Until the first half of 2021, Jasa Marga’s net profit has surged by 709.25% to Rp855.63 billion in the first half of 2021 from Rp105.73 billion last year.
The company’s EBITDA also increased by 40.76% to Rp3.62 trillion from Rp2.6 trillion. The same goes for their revenue that grew 29.95% to Rp5.64 trillion.
“Revenue increased thanks to toll road revenue growing 33.86% to Rp5.23 trillion along the operation of new toll segments. Meanwhile, the revenue of other businesses declined by 5.32% to Rp410.26 billion,” Jasa Marga Corporate Secretary, Reza Febriano, said in a written statement.
He explained that Jasa Marga was committed to accelerate toll road construction while still implementing health protocols to prevent Covid-19 transmission. This is proven by the operation of two toll roads at the start of April 2021, namely Serpong-Cinere toll road section 1 (Serpong-Pamulang) spanning 6.5 km managed by PT Cinere Serpong Jaya and Cengkareng-Batuceper-Kunciran toll road spanning 14.19 km managed by PT Jasamarga Kunciran Cengkareng.
With the operation of the two toll roads, the total length of toll road segments managed by Jasa Marga increased to 1,214 km all over Indonesia. Meanwhile, the total length of the company’s toll road concession has reached 1,603 km. “In the future, Jasa Marga will continue to carry out work programs to strengthen their capital structure and performance,” he stated.
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