PwC Indonesia Economic Update

First Quarter 2024

As we delve into this Indonesian economic update in Q1 2024, we have observed mixed sentiments on both the global economy and Indonesia’s economy.

Given the anticipated economic instability, geopolitical tensions, and political transitions in several economies, global uncertainty is projected to persist in 2024. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to raise concerns regarding potential disruptions to oil prices due to supply chain disturbances.

Adding to the complexity, the upcoming US presidential election will potentially increase uncertainty on the global stage, introducing an element of unpredictability that could potentially reshape geopolitical dynamics and affect economic policies worldwide. In this context, we examine how these global events may influence Indonesia's economic landscape in the coming months.

Domestically, the Indonesian economy grew by 5.05% year on year (“YoY”) in Q1 2024, amidst the weakening global economy. This performance, albeit slightly below the previous year's 5.31%, is noteworthy in the context of prevailing global economic challenges. Inflation experienced a significant deceleration, settling at 2.61%, a substantial decrease from 5.51% in the previous year, reflecting the efficacy of the country's monetary policies.

Key Points

  • Indonesia targets a 5.2% economic growth rate in 2024, fueled by consumption and investment. Key challenges include China’s slowing economy, which is one ofIndonesia’s main trade partners, and the risk of declining prices of key commodities.
  • Domestic consumption, which contributed 57% to Indonesia’s GDP in 2023, is expected to remain a key economic driver in 2024. This will be bolstered by increased election-related spending and an 8% salary hike for 3.7 million civil servants, likely boosting economic activity.
  • The electoral victory of Prabowo Subianto in 2024 and his commitment to continuing several of Jokowi’s current policies signal a predictable investment climate and reduce political uncertainty.

Indonesia targets IDR 1,650 trillion in investment for 2024, a 17.85% increase from 2023, with at least 50% coming from FDI. Key target investments include IDR 77.5 trillion for special economic zones and IDR 97 trillion for Batam, Bintan, and Karimun, excluding the IDR 466 trillion IKN megaproject.

The Government Budget for 2024 aims for Rp2,802.3 trillion in state revenue, Rp3,325.1 trillion in expenditure, and a Rp522.8 trillion deficit. Priority expenditures include education (Rp665 trillion), social protection (Rp496.8 trillion), health (Rp187.5 trillion), and infrastructure (Rp423.4 trillion).

Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of USD 36.91 billion in 2023, marking a 32.22% reduction from the previous year, primarily caused by a fall in global commodity prices such as coal.

Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of USD 36.91 billion in 2023, marking a 32.22% reduction from the previous year, primarily caused by a fall in global commodity prices such as coal.

Contact us

Julian  Smith

Julian Smith

Director, PwC Indonesia

Tel: +62 21 509 92901

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