The EU CBAM applies to imports of certain goods to the EU, impacting producers exporting these goods to the eurozone – including those exporting from the Middle East. A key element of the EU Green Deal, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 55% by 20301, the mechanism currently applies to six product groups – aluminium, iron and steel, fertilisers, cement, hydrogen and electricity – and is expected to create a level playing field between EU and non-EU producers, who are subject to different levels of local carbon regulations and carbon taxation/pricing.
CBAM is expected to be extended to other products, such as polymers and organic chemicals, which will have an even broader impact on products exported from the region. By 2030, the scope of CBAM is expected to include products, such as crude petroleum, petroleum products, inorganic basic chemicals, industrial gases, synthetic rubber, non-ferrous metals and others2. This will significantly impact Middle Eastern exporters, since the expanded scope includes several oil and gas downstream products.
Although EU CBAM is the first mechanism of its kind, other jurisdictions are considering implementation of similar levies. For example, the UK is considering implementing its own CBAM from 20273. And in the US, there are currently several draft bills related to international trade and carbon emissions covering a wide range of industries.
1 European Council Policies “Fit for 55” https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/green-deal/fit-for-55/
2 European Parliament “Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism” https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2023/754626/EPRS_ATA(2023)754626_EN.pdf
3 UK Revenue and Customs “Introduction of a UK carbon border adjustment mechanism from January 2027” https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65fc11fef1d3a0001132ac6f/Introduction_of_a_UK_carbon_border_adjustment_mechanism_from_January_2027.docx.pdf
In the CBAM transitional period leading up to 2026, there are requirements to provide information on GHG to customers in the EU. These will pose significant implications for the Middle East producers exporting affected goods to the EU.
Starting January 1, 2026, importing CBAM-covered goods to the EU will require the purchase of CBAM certificates4. These additional CBAM costs will influence both the EU market and producers of the concerned goods. Depending on the carbon intensity of the goods, CBAM costs might be material and could comprise a significant share of gross export revenue.
In order to effectively mitigate the impact and navigate this transformative landscape, businesses in the region currently exporting into the EU – or considering this move in the short to medium term – should start exploring the following points as an initial step:
4 European Parliament “Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism” https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2023/754626/EPRS_ATA(2023)754626_EN.pdf
When preparing for CBAM, organisations could be tempted to consider this as a compliance-specific change with limited impact and focus on the more apparent aspects of implementation, neglecting the comprehensive groundwork needed beforehand. However, upon delving into the integration, it becomes evident that the mechanism’s impact permeates various dimensions of an organisation, demanding a much broader perspective from strategy to people management.
While it is important to focus on the imminent requirements and make surgical adjustments to ensure CBAM compliance, especially during the transition period, we recommend businesses adopt a holistic approach to fully integrate CBAM requirements into the way they operate to avoid significant ramifications on their competitiveness and growth.
In our experience, there are six major areas that will be affected on a large scale across all impacted organisations, each with multiple interdependent issues to be tackled. Producers in the Middle East need to take a holistic approach to CBAM readiness to be able to navigate the transition across these six areas successfully.
To prepare for EU CBAM compliance, organisations should develop a CBAM readiness strategy that may include:
For Middle East-based organisations navigating the complexities of EU CBAM compliance, it’s important to view this transition as an opportunity rather than a challenge. Organisational leaders can implement changes in a controlled manner by embracing the CBAM readiness framework. This approach will position thems for long-term success in a rapidly evolving regulatory landscape, enabling them to drive meaningful change and pave the way towards a sustainable future.
Tatiana Shuldyk