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Bisnis Indonesia - Kinerja indeks: Potensi cuan di balik saham pelat merah
6 June 2024
By Dionisius Damara
Bisnis, Jakarta – The state-owned enterprise (SOE) stock index, IDX BUMN20, is experiencing further weakening. Throughout 2024, the index, comprising shares of state-owned issuers, has corrected by double digits, declining by 11.3%. However, it still exhibits signs of profitability.
Up to trade closing on Wednesday (5/6), the index had decreased by 0.85% on a daily basis, a lower decline compared to the Indonesia Composite Index (ICI), which fell by 2.14%. However, throughout 2024, IDX BUMN20 experienced a deeper decline compared to the composite index, accumulating a decrease of 11.3%, while the ICI recorded a decline of 4.47%.
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Investment Information Senior Nafan Aji Gusta said that the decline of IDX BUMN20 was affected by several factors. One of them is the pressure on SOE shares with substantial market capitalisation, particularly banks.
“For example, Bank KBMI 4 logged suboptimal loan growth performance. On the other hand, its non-performing loan (NPL) increased. This affects its stock price movement,” Nafan told Bisnis on Wednesday (5/6).
He hopes that the performance of SOE bank shares can improve in the second half of 2024 following anticipated interest rate cuts by The Fed and Bank Indonesia (BI). Therefore, banking shares can drive IDX BUMN20.
“At least, IDX BUMN20 can be bullish again as investors tend to favour issuers with good corporate governance, particularly banks,” Nafan said.
Meanwhile, he reckoned that SOE cement issuers were currently experiencing a decline in stock prices. Fundamentally, this is also influenced by oversupply issues that still haunt the domestic cement industry.
According to Nafa, the construction of Nusantara Capital City (IKN) and other national strategic projects is expected to recover cement demand towards normal levels.
Amid the weakening of IDX BUMN20, Nafan recommends buying PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk (PGEO) shares with a target price of Rp1,380 per share. Besides that, he also suggests implementing a buy-on-weakness strategy for shares of PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA), with the nearest support at Rp2,420.
Investors are suggested to accumulate shares of PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (TLKM) with a target price of Rp3,300. In the banking sector, the preference of Mirae Asset falls on PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI) and PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI). He recommends buying BMRI shares with a target price of Rp6,275 and suggests buying BBRI shares on weakness, with the nearest support at Rp4,310.
On a separate occasion, Stocknow.id Founder Hendra Wardana suggests three SOE shares for investors, namely PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI), PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS), and TLKM.
Fundamentally, Hendra said that the quarterly net profit margin of BBNI reached 30.52%. This number is far above the banking industry average of 15%.
“This shows BBNI can produce profit higher than its revenue compared to other similar companies,” he said to Bisnis.
However, he continued that BBNI’s debt ratio was quite high at 25%. Even though this number is higher than the industry average of 2%, this ratio is still normal as it does not surpass 100%.
Hendra recommends buying BBNI at a price of around Rp4,600-Rp4,620. The closest stock price target is set at Rp4,760 and Rp4,880 with a stop loss at Rp4,490. The price to earnings (P/E) ratio of BBNI is currently at 8.11, which is lower than the industry average of 11.9.
PGAS’ stock is also granted a buy recommendation with a target price of around Rp1,650 to Rp1,735 per share. The company’s P/E ratio is at 5.07, which is lower than the industry average of 9.04.
“PGAS’ valuation is currently quite low. This indicates the stock price of PGAS to be undervalued. For investors, this condition can be interesting to invest in PGAS’ shares,” Hendra stated.
Meanwhile, TLKM is granted a buy recommendation at around Rp3,000 to Rp3,020. The target stock price of this telecommunications issuer is set at Rp3,180 and Rp3,410 with a stop loss at Rp2,900 per share.
Hendra stated that TLKM’s performance showed several impressive indicators. For example, the company’s net profit margin reaches 16.17% quarterly, which is higher than the industry average of 14.30%.
TLKM has a debt ratio of 29%, which is lower than the industry average of 65%. Hendra stated that the low debt ratio showed that TLKM has a smaller financial risk.
These shares can still strengthen. There are currently two main factors supressing the performance of IDX BUMN20, which are domestic economic performance and Indonesia’s economic growth slowdown that worsen the performance of state-owned shares.
“The shares of SOEs in key sectors, such as energy, infrastructure, and finance, are under pressure, which affects the performance of the index,” he stated.
He added that the uncertainty of the government with changes in subsidy, fiscal, and monetary policies also affected SOE shares, as reflected in the index. Besides that, external factors cannot be ignored. Global developments, such as the increase in interest rate by the US central bank, The Fed, trade wars, and geopolitical tensions can affect Indonesia’s capital market, including IDX BUMN20.
“Suboptimal financial performance of SOEs in IDX BUMN20 is also a contributing factor. If their financial reports indicate a decrease in profit or an increase in debt, it can adversely impact their stock prices,” he stated.
Hendra reckoned that IDX BUMN20 until the end of this year would be burdened by several factors, including stronger economic recovery signs, more accommodative fiscal stimulants, and improved SOE corporate governance.
“Accommodative monetary policies from the government and Bank Indonesia can also offer support. Improvements in the corporate governance of SOEs, along with restructuring and initiatives to enhance operational efficiency, can also serve as positive drivers,” he said.
Additionally, he noted that positive developments in the global market, such as stabilised commodity prices and reduced geopolitical tensions, can support the recovery of the stock market, including IDX BUMN20.
