Overview of the project
The project was launched as a team of six members, all in their third to fifth years with PricewaterhouseCoopera Aarata LLC (PwC Aarata), as an effort to examine what PwC and our people need to do to build sustained trust in an ever-changing society and economy.
By involving members of younger generations, who tend to be highly sensitive to today’s changing times and values, in our strategic planning, as opposed to only experienced members of management, we believe that we can encourage our younger people to develop their own perspectives on the future of our society, and foster a highly autonomous organizational culture that enables each of our people to bring a management perspective to their day-to-day work.
The team looked back at past events in an effort to understand the nature, structure and recurring patterns in events that have occurred to date. Then, they discussed and modelled potential near futures, and came up with four possible scenarios.
In scenario planning, it is important to define key issues—areas that are highly uncertain and difficult to predict. Our team defined the following four key issues: politics and economics, climate change, technology and trust.
They then constructed four major scenarios which diverged depending on whether or not each key issue* was able to be brough under control. In this report, we take a look at the four scenarios from the perspectives of where our society is headed and what role we should play along that path.
*Technology was considered alongside the other elements when developing each scenario.
Video introducing the four scenarios
Where is our society headed?
What role should we play along that path?
Let's take a look at the four scenarios.
8:45
Scenario 1：Science fiction comes to life
A future of political and economic harmony, where climate change is under control and trust has been firmly established.
As the world remains politically and economically stable, people also feel safe and secure. Repetitive and dangerous work is now performed by robots, enabling people to enjoy greater physical and mental safety in their daily lives.
In such a society, people need trust in information, which can be achieved through the establishment of globally uniform regimes, as well as the fundamental trust in society and the economy that is necessary for each individual to realise a way of life that suits them.
Scenario 2 : A unified front against environmental crises
A future of political and economic harmony, where climate change is not under control, but trust has been firmly established.
The international community has shifted from one of mutual tension to collaboration to address both common global problems, such as climate change, and regional political instability. However, environmental changes continue to occur at a rapid pace, urgently necessitating new measures and new international goals. In such ways, the use of technology is expanding to help ensure a sustainable supply of food while also mitigating the impact of climate change.
In such a society, people need trust in technologies that can combat climate change and extreme weather (e.g. climate change simulations and disaster prediction technologies) and trust in measures that will help build resilience in countries and regions that have suffered damage.
Scenario 3 : A new cold war era
A future of political and economic fragmentation, where climate change is under control, but trust has been lost.
The rise of China has heightened US-China tension, and fragmentation has intensified under these two superpowers. Amidst this growing tension between superpowers, both countries’ military-industrial complexes have also grown based on technology. The effects of advanced technologies have partially contributed to avoiding a significant increase in the global temperature, and the environmental situation remains largely the same. Between non-allied countries, relationships have become sceptical and hesitant due to ideological and other differences. However, common values and trust have been strengthened among allied countries that share a common understanding of security and the economy.
In such a society, people need actions to address external cyber risks originating from the rival economic bloc, as well as trust in uniform regimes and frameworks and disclosed information within each economic bloc.
Scenario 4 : A dystopian society
A future of political and economic fragmentation, where climate change is not under control, and trust has also been lost.
Friction between the US and China has intensified in various fields. This has led to various types of fragmentation in many countries and regions. As countries devote themselves to competitive development and continue to emit greenhouse gases, the world’s average temperature has risen significantly. With the threats of frequent natural disasters and military conflicts, people increasingly seek trust in physical security and preservation of their property in order to protect their lifestyles. At the same time, people demand an even greater level of trust when it comes to ever-advancing technology, and interest in the safety and reliability of food, disaster prevention systems, national and regional security and cybersecurity will increase.
In such a society, people need security for technologies that could cause damage or harm to people, as well as trust in national governments and in the communities to which people belong, which help to ensure the financial and physical security of individuals.
What can we do in the future world?
We've used politics and economics, climate change and trust to consider four scenarios for the world ten years from now. These scenarios are not just fiction.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, our world has seen previously unimaginable crises arise one after another.
In this world of great uncertainty, any of these scenarios is plausible.
At PwC, our Purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems.
Although each of these four scenarios calls for a different type of trust, our Purpose itself remains the same.
Each of our people understands this Purpose, and by changing flexibly with the times and acting to overcome these challenges, we continue to build trust in this ever-changing society.
What will the world look like ten years from now?
Our mission is to imagine and create a brighter future.
Our team
Masataka Kubota
Territory Senior Partner, PwC Japan Group
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